Carving the Future of Macroeconomic Policy

Seminar 1: The New Normal for Monetary Policy: Which unconventional Monetary Policy tools are here to stay?

Speaker: Mr. Ľudovít Ódor

Abstract: The world economy went from ultra-low to high inflation: what happened and what can central banks do about it? Do unconventional monetary policy measures provide any exit strategies from the situation? As we enter a new normal, which of these tools are here to stay, thus transforming from being unconventional to conventional? Compounded by the problems of population ageing and high public debt, what are the long-term prospects for inflation?

About the Speaker: Mr. Ódor has been an integral part of the National bank of Slovakia's team as its deputy governor, contributing significantly to the decision-making process in the Slovak Republic. He has been at the forefront of numerous reforms in both the economic and financial arenas, as well as occupying numerous prestigious positions, including his membership in the Council for Budget Responsibility and the Supervisory Board of the Slovak Savings Bank.

Mr. Ódor has had a significant role in the financial policies of the Slovak Republic, having served as the Director of the Ministry's Institute for Financial Policy and Chief Economist at the Ministry of Finance. Furthermore, he was the adviser to the Slovak Prime Minister and Finance Minister, and actively took part in the formulation of reform policies such as the Euro adoption plan, tax and pension changes, the Fiscal Responsibility Act, and the ‘Value for Money’ project.

Seminar 2: The Shifting Balance of Power between Fiscal and Monetary Policies

Speaker: Dr. Martin Šuster

Abstract: Among macroeconomic demand management tools, between 1980s and early 2000s the monetary policy had been considered much more effective and efficient than fiscal policy. It could react very quickly, guiding expectations progressed from magic to art and eventually science. Fiscal policy was asked to not interfere, while central bankers tried to fine-tune the economy. Since the Global financial crises the balance has shifted and currently fiscal policy dominates. Even though central bankers employed new tools, especially quantitative easing, fiscal policies were crucial after the GFC and again during the Covid-19 pandemic and current energy crisis. One of the driving forces is demographic transition – global ageing, which decreases real interest rates. Since demographic developments change only very slowly, fiscal policies will likely be more powerful than monetary policy in the coming decades.

About the Speaker: Martin Šuster is a member of the Council for Budget Responsibility of Slovakia. Prior to this, he was the Director of the Research Department at the National Bank of Slovakia during 2007-2021. During 2007-2009 he chaired the working group for communication on the euro introduction in Slovakia, coordinating the changeover information campaign. He is the Chairman of the Board of Transparency International Slovakia since 2017. He also chaired the Slovak Economic Association for many years until 2020.

Dr. Šuster received a doctorate in economics from the University of Maryland at College Park, USA, specializing in macroeconomics and labour markets. His research interests include macroeconomics, convergence, monetary policy and research quality assessment. He has lectured at several Slovak universities.